Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Benjamin Cowen2025-06-04T11:11:44monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
46.05%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
105,653.82
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
72,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
57,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
65,316
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
31.85%
Initial Invalidation Distance
46.05%
Risk / Reward
0.69
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
46.05%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-06-04T11:11:44
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-06-04T12:00:00
Resolved At
2025-06-04T12:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-06-04T12:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
0.8h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Benjamin Cowen
YouTube · @intothecryptoverse
Reliability
50
Success Rate
37.95%
Consistency
0
Risk Adjusted
41.12
Avg Return
51.87%
Avg Quality
3.44
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
Is7v_45oxoM
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video analyzes Bitcoin using the 'supply in profit and loss' metric, available on intothecryptoverse.com. This metric identifies market cycle bottoms historically when the 'supply in profit' crosses the 'supply in loss'. The video mentions that cycle tops cannot be identified using this metric. Applying a 30-day moving average (SMA) identifies when over 90% of the supply is in profit, potentially signaling an upcoming pullback. As of June 1st, the 30-day SMA is at 96.71%. The speaker expects strength may continue into late May/early June, then a pullback in Q3, around August/September, with a possible low near $57000.

Original Caption

This chart shows the percentage of existing coins whose price was lower than the current price the last time they moved on-chain. Currently only data for Bitcoin is available. There are also options to switch to the percentage of existing coins whose price was higher than the current price the last time they moved on-chain, and an option to view both. Putting in a new all time high implies that 100% of supply is being held in profit. When multiple all time highs are put in, the percentage of supply in profit could stay near 100% for a while. One of the most clear patterns is that historically the crossing of supply in profit and loss has been a necessary condition for the market cycle bottom to occur. By applying a moving average one can also identify overheated areas when the moving average starts to reach values close to 100%. For example, the 50D SMA reaching values of 97% or above has historically been a fairly decent indicator for predicting a (short term) pullback. This does not mean that pullbacks can't happen anytime else of course. On the other hand, during bear markets, the bottom tends to occur near values of 40-50 percent of supply being held in profit. Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com Data provided by: https://coinmetrics.io/ Into The Cryptoverse Newsletter: https://newsletter.intothecryptoverse.com/ LIFETIME OPTION: https://intothecryptoverse.com/product/subscription-to-the-premium-list-lifetime/ Alternative Option: https://www.patreon.com/intothecryptoverse Merch: https://store.intothecryptoverse.com/ Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice. Telegram: https://t.me/intocryptoverse Twitter: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse TikTok: tiktok.com/@benjamincowencrypto Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bjcowen/ Discord: https://discord.gg/UGwc6eR Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/intothecryptoverse Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/intothecryptoverse/ Website: https://intothecryptoverse.com/

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal