Prediction Case File
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This chart shows the percentage of existing coins whose price was lower than the current price the last time they moved on-chain. Currently only data for Bitcoin is available. There are also options to switch to the percentage of existing coins whose price was higher than the current price the last

1 extracted signal · 1 resolved · 0 still active

Benjamin Cowen profile imageBenjamin Cowen04 Jun 2025, 11:11 UTC
Video preview for This chart shows the percentage of existing coins whose price was lower than the current price the last time they moved on-chain. Currently only data for Bitcoin is available. There are also options to switch to the percentage of existing coins whose price was higher than the current price the last
Signals
1
Eligible signals in this source
Open
0
Still being tracked
Resolved
1
Evaluable outcomes
Successful
0
Canonical correct result
Failed
1
Canonical failed result
Resolved success
0%
Open and excluded signals omitted
Source overview

AI-generated source summary

The video analyzes Bitcoin using the 'supply in profit and loss' metric, available on intothecryptoverse.com. This metric identifies market cycle bottoms historically when the 'supply in profit' crosses the 'supply in loss'. The video mentions that cycle tops cannot be identified using this metric. Applying a 30-day moving average (SMA) identifies when over 90% of the supply is in profit, potentially signaling an upcoming pullback. As of June 1st, the 30-day SMA is at 96.71%. The speaker expects strength may continue into late May/early June, then a pullback in Q3, around August/September, with a possible low near $57000.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Case timeline

Evidence and evaluation progress

  1. Original source published

    The analyst published the original source item.

  2. First prediction resolved

    The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

  3. Case evaluation completed

    All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.

  4. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

    The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

  5. Market predictions extracted

    1 eligible signal linked to this case.

  6. Outcome tracking started

    Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

Extracted intelligence

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Analyst history

Benjamin Cowen

Tracked signals
230
Historical success
37.4%
Methodology & disclosure

Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.