Why one-day breakdowns are unreliable — wait for follow-through
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Market Misbehavior with Dave Keller, CMTIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 20 Sept 2026, 05:33 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 20 Sept 2026, 09:35 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis focuses on the S&P 500 (SPX) index, suggesting a bullish outlook. Despite a breakdown observed on the previous day, today's bounce back above the 50-day moving average is interpreted as a sign of strength. The analyst highlights that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) did not drop below 40, which is considered a positive indicator and a caveat against a bearish interpretation of yesterday's price action. The market is viewed as potentially forming a bull flag pattern. The key takeaway is the importance of waiting for confirmation and validation of breakdowns, rather than reacting prematurely to single-day moves. The current price is noted as approximately 7527.70, with a potential target price around 7850.00. The failure bound for this bullish scenario is set below the current price, around 7400.00, suggesting that a price below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis.
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Market Misbehavior with Dave Keller, CMT
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Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.