Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Crypto Jebb2025-08-05T02:44:48dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-2.84%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
114,630.92
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
135,000
Predicted objective
Invalidation
111,371
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
114,728
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
17.77%
Initial Invalidation Distance
2.84%
Risk / Reward
6.25
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-2.84%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality72.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-05T02:44:48
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-24T19:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-24T19:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-24T19:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
472.25h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Crypto Jebb
YouTube · @CryptoJebb
Reliability
43.95
Success Rate
29.33%
Consistency
88.55
Risk Adjusted
-9
Avg Return
-2.5%
Avg Quality
3.42
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
YwLZ_pst_aw
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, requiring a $5000 rally within weeks to avoid a large corrective movement. The prior corrective movement, dropping to $112,000 from $119,000, was healthy due to liquidating over-leveraged longs. Bitcoin currently faces resistance at $115,700. Examining the weekly chart, a widening resistance zone is forming. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is below an up-trending support level, having filled the CME futures gap between $114,000 and $115,000. Bitcoin now needs to move back through this level. The analysis also highlights a flat resistance level at $115,000. Unless there's a strong breakout the presenter expects a 5 wave corrective movement below 112. A break above $118,000 is needed to signal upward potential. A trend line is marked to a possible target of $250,000 by the end of the decade, for the analysis to be right a failure for BTCUSD would be if price reaches 111371.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal