Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Krown2025-08-01T17:38:34monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.52%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
114,464.1
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
133,102
Predicted objective
Invalidation
107,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
114,791
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Range
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
16.28%
Initial Invalidation Distance
6.52%
Risk / Reward
2.5
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-6.52%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality84.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-01T17:38:34
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved At
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-10T21:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,683.35h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Krown
YouTube · @ECKrown
Reliability
55.22
Success Rate
45.33%
Consistency
90.28
Risk Adjusted
-4.26
Avg Return
-0.22%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
2hk3ltpNAz8
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis forecasts Bitcoin for August. August typically closes negatively, 66.66% of the time. However, the August after a halving event has historically been positive. If the trend is positive, the average gain is 24.6%, median is 13.6%. If negative, the average loss is 14.55%. Highlighted days where the low of August can be seen as positive and negative. If August closes green there is a target of $133102. The fail price is set at $107000. The monthly stochastic oscillator is going back into a critical area, though that indicator has not played well.

Original Caption

🟧ByBit (Inverse Perps & High Liquidity)https://partner.bybit.com/b/Cave 🟦Bitunix (No KYC & 33% Fee Discount)https://www.bitunix.com/register?vipCode=Discount33 ⬛BloFin (No KYC & 15% discount) https://partner.blofin.com/d/Reduction All Educational Products & Indicators https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ ️ META SIGNALShttps://metasignals.io/nft Use code KROWN for 10% off FOREVER. ️Cave Discord Trading Community - https://discord.gg/3PJDRbYw44 Tune in for a deep dive into **bitcoin analysis** and August's historical **data**. We'll examine **btc price** movements and probabilities, providing insights into potential market directions. Get the latest **bitcoin news** and potential **bitcoin price prediction august**. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto Bitcoin,bitcoin,btc,BTC,bitcoin price,btc price,bitcoin price prediction,btc analysis,bitcoin analysis,bitcoin news,when to buy btc,when to buy crypto,bitcoin bull market,bitcoin ta,when buy btc,crypto analysis,bitcoin technical analysis,btc technical analysis,crypto,live trading,crypto trading,crypto news,altcoin,bitcoin technical analysis today,trading crypto,bitcoin today,xrp today,btc prediction,crypto news today,altcoins,bitcoin price target Disclaimer Please understand that leverage trading is very risky and around 80% of people who leverage trade have a net loss over a long time frame. Do not trade on any exchange that prohibits trading from your geographical region. The content in this video are only intended for entertainment purposes only. Please do your own due diligence when making decisions for yourself. 0:00 - August statistics for Bitcoin 1:00 - Probability of negative closures 2:10 - Median returns for positive August 4:45 - Early lows in negative closing months 6:57 - Bitcoin's potential pullback levels 8:34 - Average differentials for August 9:31 - Importance of moving averages in trading 10:35 - Caution against continuation in Bitcoin trends 11:39 - Accumulation and distribution indicator analysis 12:56 - Monthly stochastic momentum oscillator insights 14:30 - Key levels for Bitcoin's potential downside 15:34 - Discussion on trend analysis 16:30 - Bitcoin's potential for further decline 17:10 - Key pivot levels for Bitcoin 19:04 - Descending triangle pattern forming

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
BTCUSDT Bullish Signal by Krown | Tahlil Plus AI