Prediction Case File
DUOLstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-08-11T22:31:54long_termfundamental
Live Outcome
-14.56%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
340.57998657
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
582
Predicted objective
Invalidation
291
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
370
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
70.88%
Initial Invalidation Distance
14.56%
Risk / Reward
4.87
Timeframe
Long Term
Live Position
-14.56%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-11T22:31:54
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-09-02T13:30:00
Max High
371.63000488
Max High At
-
Min Low
287.31500244
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
518.97h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.72
Success Rate
33.18%
Consistency
82.78
Risk Adjusted
-8.03
Avg Return
-1.16%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
uF9HjWwWTwg
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video presents a fundamental analysis of Duolingo (DUOL) stock, initiated due to high investor demand. The company is described as a potential disruptor in the $500-700 billion education market, currently holding a $16 billion market cap. The analysis reviews Duolingo's Q2 2025 financial metrics, noting a 41% year-over-year revenue increase, an 84% increase in net income, and a 31% adjusted EBITDA margin. It's explained that Duolingo generates revenue primarily through converting monthly active users into paid subscribers and through advertising revenue, the MAUs are over 128 million while the paid subs are near 11 million, and the advertising revenue grows at 30% CAGR. The key metric discussed is the churn rate, benchmarked at 28% against competitors such as Babbel. A bullish long-term outlook is set, using earnings per share growth rate with 30x PE ratio over the next 5 years. Under the numbers the upside is 57%, this translates to a target of $582. Analysis is invalidated if the price is at $291 or lower.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do a Duolingo stock analysis & discuss the risks and upside potential of DUOL stock MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt My Stock Analysis Platform (2 weeks free): https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal