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The S&P 500 Just Drew a Line to 8,500 — And Nobody's Talking About the 13-Day Clock The S&P 500 at 7,431 — with chip stocks down more than 4% and Alphabet off over 4% on an AI delay story. And the chart on the screen still points to 8,500. Both of those things are true at the same time. This video explains why — and exactly what has to happen for the target to print, what breaks it, and what a prepared investor does about it before the Fed meets on July 29th. ──────────────────────────────── WHAT'S INSIDE ──────────────────────────────── 00:00 — Somebody drew an arrow to 8,500 00:09 — How to read this chart, slowly and out loud 03:34 — The news: a very weird, very good week 06:33 — Historical perspective: why this shape keeps showing up 09:11 — The engine room: is there actually fuel in the tank? 12:39 - Four Scenarios 16:04 CLOSE — The ruler and the room ──────────────────────────────── THE NUMBERS (close of July 16, 2026) ──────────────────────────────── S&P 500 ................. 7,533.77 (−0.51%) Nasdaq Composite ........ 25,881.95 (−1.47%) Dow Jones ............... 52,552.97 (−0.20%) VIX ..................... 16.24 (+3.66%) 50-day average .......... 7,453.33 ← the trapdoor Record high (June 2) .... 7,620.90 ← the trigger Measured-move target .... 8,500 ← the reward (+12.8%) 52-week range ........... 6,212.69 – 7,620.90 Year to date ............ +10.1% | Trailing 12 months: +19.6% June CPI ................ 3.5% y/y (below the 3.8% expected; −0.4% m/m) June PPI ................ 5.5% headline / 4.7% core Fed funds target ........ 3.50%–3.75% (Chair Kevin Warsh) Next FOMC ............... July 28–29 · ~83% priced for a hold 10-yr / 30-yr Treasury .. 4.58% / 5.11% Jobless claims .......... 208,000 (forecast: 218,000) Philadelphia Fed index .. 41.4 — a five-year high Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth estimate ... +23.6% y/y (raised from +18.8% on March 31 — analysts almost never revise UP) Q2 revenue growth estimate ................. +12.2% — fastest since Q2 2022 Full-year 2026 earnings growth estimate .... +24.1% Forward 12-month P/E ....................... ~20.4 Chips as a share of the S&P 500 ............ over 20% (vs ~8% three or four years ago) Top ten companies .......................... ~38% of the entire index ──────────────────────────────── THE FOUR ROADS ──────────────────────────────── BULL ......... 8,500 (+12.8%) ..... 27% BASE ......... 7,900 (+4.9%) ...... 42% BEAR ......... 7,050 (−6.4%) ...... 23% BLACK SWAN ... 6,300 (−16.4%) ..... 8% Upside probability: 69% · Downside: 31% These are my own judgements. They are not forecasts from any bank, index provider or research firm. SUBSCRIBE TO CHANNEL HERE for daily stock market views, trades, comments https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCU1Ierna1ylEPgk6oIxHZGw/join Members only video https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=UUMOU1Ierna1ylEPgk6oIxHZGw Consider joining my Patreon channel https://www.patreon.com/BLACKSWANEVENTS Collaboration mail : [email protected] The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice. Nothing on this site is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial asset or to adopt any investment strategy.
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