Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.
Entry, target and invalidation logic
The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.
AI quality scoring
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What happened after publication?
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Source, summary and reference
The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's price action and its potential downward trajectory. The speaker identifies a bearish trend on the daily chart, indicating that Bitcoin's price might be expected to decline further. The key resistance area is noted around $70,000 to $80,000, with resistance levels at 78.60%, 61.80%, 50.00%, and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement levels. The current price is analyzed relative to these resistance zones, with a potential target of $40,000 to $30,000, representing a significant drop from current levels. The fail bound for this bearish outlook is placed slightly above the current resistance area, around $65,000, indicating that a sustained move above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis. The analysis also references the monthly chart, comparing the current pattern to previous bear markets in 2022, specifically highlighting similar RSI and MACD behaviors that preceded significant downturns. The speaker emphasizes that while the current market conditions are considered bearish, any break above the resistance area would require a re-evaluation of the outlook, suggesting a potential shift to a bullish trend if strong upward momentum occurs.
Could Bitcoin Still Crash 35‑40%? Assessing the Downside Risk In this video I break down why Bitcoin’s recent rejection from key resistance could signal the next low in this cycle. I walk through the four‑year cycle outlook, compare the current fractal to 2022, and analyze the monthly MACD bearish cross for bear‑market confirmation. You’ll also get a detailed look at micro‑support zones around $63K‑$65K and the potential for a 35‑40% further downside, plus a best‑case scenario that could push Bitcoin to $75K‑$77K. We examine the macro timing model, Elliott Wave implications, and the monthly momentum indicators that could hint at a bottom forming. Then I shift to the shorter‑term chart to pinpoint critical support and resistance levels, explaining how a flat‑correction B wave or a five‑wave decline might unfold. By the end you’ll have a clear view of the price ranges to watch and what each signal means for Bitcoin’s near‑term outlook. Timestamps: 0:00 - Resistance rejection overview 1:20 - Cycle thesis and upcoming lows 2:41 - 2022 fractal comparison and RSI 4:06 - Best‑case 75‑77K scenario 5:58 - Flat correction B wave explained 7:04 - Monthly MACD bearish cross 8:40 - Potential low and MACD status 10:30 - Downside risk 35‑40% 12:11 - Micro‑support 63‑64K zone ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 MCO Global: 💻 https://www.mcoglobal.com/ ✉️ Join the FREE Newsletter: 👉 https://mcoglobal.com/newsletter/ 🧿 Join the More Crypto Online Community: 👉 https://www.mcoglobal.com/memberships OR 👉 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCngIhBkikUe6e7tZTjpKK7Q/join OR 👉 https://www.patreon.com/morecryptoonline 🧿 Join the MCO Stocks & S&P500 Community: 👉 https://www.patreon.com/moretradingonline ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Social Media: 👉 X / Twitter: https://x.com/Morecryptoonl 👉 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morecryptoonline_official/ 🔗 All Links: https://linktr.ee/morecryptoonline ✉️ Contact: [email protected] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Exchanges & Brokers (Affiliate Links): 👉 Trade on Bybit: https://partner.bybit.com/b/MCO 👉 Trade on Bitget: https://partner.bitget.com/bg/MoreCryptoOnline 👉 Trade with XTB – a global, regulated broker offering 7,100+ stocks and 1,400 ETFs 🔗 https://geolink.xtb.com/XjNyk (Please note: XTB services are not available to U.S. clients.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🧿 Research & Tools (Affiliate Links): 👉 Tradingview - Chart software Get a $15 discount on your first subscription: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=108760 👉 Bitcoin Magazine Pro – On-chain data & research Get 20% off with code: 20MCO https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com 👉 CoinTracking – Portfolio & tax tracking Get 10% lifetime discount with this link: https://cointracking.info/?ref=B776587 👉 Protect your cryptocurrencies with Trezor: https://bit.ly/morecryptoonline 👉 Protect your cryptocurrencies with Ledger: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=0fb3c8be2e46 👉 Stay safe with NordVPN: https://go.nordvpn.net/SH4s0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⚠️ Disclaimer The content provided on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments, or a financial service under applicable laws. All analyses and opinions expressed are strictly personal views. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and act at your own risk. Always consider your individual risk profile and, if necessary, consult with an independent financial advisor. Some of the links provided in this description may be affiliate links. If you choose to use them, MCO Global may receive a commission – at no additional cost to you. Thank you for supporting the channel. ⚠️ Important: Affiliate links related to cryptocurrency exchanges are not available to residents of the United Kingdom, the United States, or any other restricted jurisdictions. Please check the laws and regulations that apply in your country before using such services. Other affiliate links (e.g. VPN, hardware wallets, software tools) are unaffected.
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