Prediction Case File
SPYstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

IC Trades2026-06-15T21:32:24dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-1.82%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
754.65997314
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
740.92999268
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
762
Predicted objective
Invalidation
745
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
750
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
0.97%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.28%
Risk / Reward
0.76
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-1.82%
closed
Current Price
740.92999268
Live Score
56.69
Distance to Target Now
2.84%
Distance to Invalidation Now
-0.55%
Price Structure Valid
Yes
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality76.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-06-15T21:32:24
First Checked
2026-06-17T01:01:28
Last Checked
2026-06-18T01:31:50
Resolved
2026-06-18T01:31:50
Resolved At
2026-06-18T01:31:50
Resolved Candle
2026-06-17T17:30:00
Max High
755.44000244
Max High At
2026-06-16T13:30:00
Min Low
743.46618652
Min Low At
2026-06-17T17:30:00
Time To Result
51.98h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

IC Trades
YouTube · @ICMakesTrades
Reliability
51.28
Success Rate
39.52%
Consistency
88.46
Risk Adjusted
-8.3
Avg Return
-0.88%
Avg Quality
3.62
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
gemini-2.5-flash-lite
Processed At
2026-06-15T21:56:55
External Post ID
4jO--GaaHn0
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis focuses on SPY, highlighting its recent upward movement and testing of key resistance levels. The speaker identifies significant support and resistance zones, with a particular focus on the $45.68 and $50.01 levels. The stock has shown strength with multiple consecutive green days and a recent retest of the $42.89 level, which is now acting as support. The speaker suggests that a bullish continuation is likely, with a target of $50.01, and a subsequent target of $55.00. The failure bound for the bullish thesis is placed below the current support at $42.00. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is presented as being in a healthy bullish position, with the potential to retest prior all-time highs around $762.00. The fail bound for this level is estimated at $745.00, with the current price near $750.00.

Original Caption

APLD (Applied Digital) All Time High Breakout Incoming? | APLD Stock Analysis APLD (Applied Digital) stock is sitting at a key price level that often leads to either a strong breakout or a sharp rejection. The next move could happen sooner than most traders expect. In this analysis, we break down the key levels on APLD, potential scenarios, and how broader market conditions could impact price in the coming days and weeks. 📈 Want to be able to read charts and take good trades with confidence? I built The Traders Framework: Chart Reading, Structure & Decision-Making 🏆 Get Access Here: https://ianctrades.com Subscribe for weekly trading insights, strategies, and market breakdowns. ⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #apld #applieddigital #technicalanalysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal