Prediction Case File
BTCUSDTcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JayWave2025-08-18T13:21:09dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-0.31%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
115,645.67
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
114,200
Predicted objective
Invalidation
116,000
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
115,472
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
1.25%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.31%
Risk / Reward
4.08
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-0.31%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-18T13:21:09
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-18T15:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-18T15:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-18T15:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1.63h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JayWave
YouTube · @JayWaveOfficial
Reliability
52.08
Success Rate
40.99%
Consistency
91.2
Risk Adjusted
-7.34
Avg Return
-1.6%
Avg Quality
3.39
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
vUAHuNtz-uI
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst discusses a volatile week ahead in both crypto and traditional markets. He mentions Jerome Powell's speech on August 20th and the Jackson Hole event from August 21st to 23rd, anticipating market volatility. He points out that $100 million in long positions were liquidated due to poor risk management and bad timing. The analyst analyzes BTCUSD, identifying pullbacks, and a target around 114200. He sets 116000 as a price that invalidates the analysis. For ETHUSD, he identifies a clear trend and risk management area but expects volatility. Also mention some upcoming events like Powell speech and a conference.

Original Caption

Krypto Volatilität vor Jackson Hole & Fed-Entscheidung In diesem Video erfährst du: Warum über 100 Mio. $ Longs liquidiert wurden Welche Rolle Jerome Powell & das Jackson Hole Meeting spielen Ob im September eine Zinssenkung kommt oder nicht On-Chain-Daten: Wer verkauft, wer kauft (BTC & ETH) ETF-Zuflüsse/-Abflüsse bei Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana Chartanalyse: Bitcoin & Ethereum – Targets, Pullbacks & Risk Management Geopolitik: Trump trifft Selensky – Was bedeutet ein möglicher Frieden für Krypto? Fazit: Die kommende Woche wird extrem spannend – zwischen Zinspolitik, Geopolitik und Marktliquidität entscheidet sich der nächste große Move im Kryptomarkt. Lerne professionell traden (zuerst) MasterClass Tradingkurs – strukturiertes System: Marktstruktur, Orderflow, On-Chain, Setups, Journaling https://swisscryptojay.ch/masterclass-tradingkurs 1:1 Coaching – individuelles Mentoring, klare To-dos https://swisscryptojay.ch/coaching Live-Webinare & Trading-Sessions – Praxis, Setups, Q&A https://swisscryptojay.ch/webinare Trading-Tools & exklusive Boni Phemex – Sofort VIP1 & Bonus bis 30’000 USD https://swisscryptojay.ch/Phemex Deutschsprachiger Support (Telegram) https://swisscryptojay.ch/telegram Bitget – Bonus bis 6’200 USD + 30 % Rabatt auf die MasterClass https://bonus.bitget.com/SwissCryptoJay ️ Wichtig: Sende deine UID (Mail oder Telegram), um den MasterClass-Rabatt zu erhalten. Wallet-Sicherheit – Schuetze deine Coins BitBox Hardware Wallet https://swisscryptojay.ch/bitbox Ledger Nano X & S Plus https://swisscryptojay.ch/ledger Charts & Analyse: TradingView https://de.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=mildCockatoo4955 Folge mir für tägliche Marktupdates Instagram – schnelle Insights https://swisscryptojay.ch/instagram X.com – tiefere Analysen https://swisscryptojay.ch/twitter Bitcoin Watches – Swiss Made https://www.bitcoin-watch.ch ⏰ Kapitel 00:00 Intro & Ausblick: Volatile Woche 01:44 Bitcoin On-Chain Daten 03:37 Marktvolumen & Open Interest 04:18 Ethereum On-Chain Daten 05:35 Spot-ETF Ströme BTC & ETH 06:49 Marktliquidität & Range 10:20 Geopolitik: Trump, Selensky & Frieden 14:31 Zinssenkung oder nicht? Fed im Fokus 15:11 Bitcoin Chartanalyse 20:51 Ethereum Chartanalyse 22:29 Fazit & Community-Frage ️ Risikohinweis Ich bin Certified Crypto Finance Expert. Keine Finanzberatung. Krypto-Investments sind hochriskant; Totalverluste moeglich. Handle eigenverantwortlich und recherchiere selbst. Call-to-Action Abonniere und Glocke aktivieren, damit du Setups & On-Chain Signale nicht verpasst. Kommentar: Bullish oder Bearish? Wie handelst du das aktuelle Setup? Hashtags #Bitcoin #BTC #Krypto #Trading #Daytrading #Scalping #Futures #Investmens #OnChain #Marktanalyse #Risikomanagement #Altcoinanalyse #strategie

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal