Prediction Case File
NVDAstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Satoshi Stacker2026-05-25T10:28:48dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-6.93%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
215.25
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
200.33999634
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
235
Predicted objective
Invalidation
200
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
215.33
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
9.18%
Initial Invalidation Distance
7.08%
Risk / Reward
1.3
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-6.93%
closed
Current Price
200.33999634
Live Score
45.86
Distance to Target Now
17.3%
Distance to Invalidation Now
0.17%
Price Structure Valid
Yes
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
0%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable0.00%
Derived Quality85.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-05-25T10:28:48
First Checked
2026-05-27T01:01:45
Last Checked
2026-06-10T01:32:17
Resolved
2026-06-10T01:32:17
Resolved At
2026-06-10T01:32:17
Resolved Candle
2026-06-09T16:30:00
Max High
232.27999878
Max High At
2026-06-02T13:30:00
Min Low
199.33999634
Min Low At
2026-06-09T16:30:00
Time To Result
375.05h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Satoshi Stacker
YouTube · @stackersatoshi
Reliability
50.71
Success Rate
38.8%
Consistency
89.86
Risk Adjusted
-8.3
Avg Return
-2.3%
Avg Quality
3.55
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
gemini-2.5-flash-lite
Processed At
2026-05-25T11:28:25
External Post ID
_TY0sKbgNSE
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The market analysis focuses on a bullish outlook for major cryptocurrencies and stocks, with specific targets and potential failure points identified. Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is expected to move towards $81,600 from its current $77,500, with a failure bound at $74,500. Ethereum (ETHUSDT) shows a similar bullish sentiment, targeting $3,000 from $2,860, with a fail range at $2,750. SOLUSDT is seen as range-bound around $86.70, with targets at $90.00 and failure at $84.00. In the stock market, the S&P 500 (SPX) is bullish, targeting $7,900 from $7,559.75, with a fail at $7,300. NVIDIA (NVDA) is projected to reach $235 from $215.33, failing below $200. Tesla (TSLA) aims for $250 from $220.81, with a failure at $200. AMD (AMD) is expected to hit $150 from $135.96, failing below $125. Apple (AAPL) has a target of $200 from $187.95, with failure below $175. Amazon (AMZN) is bullish, targeting $150 from $135.89, with a failure at $120. The analysis implies that these assets are expected to continue their upward trends, but any significant drop below the identified failure bounds would invalidate the bullish predictions.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal