Prediction Case File
XAGUSDforexbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2026-05-14T04:15:39intradaytechnical
Live Outcome
-2.76%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
87.93000031
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
88.2
Predicted objective
Invalidation
85.5
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
84.24
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
0.31%
Initial Invalidation Distance
2.76%
Risk / Reward
0.11
Timeframe
Intraday
Live Position
-2.76%
closed
Current Price
-
Live Score
65.59
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
Yes
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-05-14T04:15:39
First Checked
2026-05-20T01:02:42
Last Checked
2026-05-20T01:02:42
Resolved
2026-05-20T01:02:42
Resolved At
2026-05-20T01:02:42
Resolved Candle
2026-05-14T13:00:00
Max High
88.16000366
Max High At
2026-05-14T08:00:00
Min Low
84.375
Min Low At
2026-05-14T13:00:00
Time To Result
140.78h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.26
Success Rate
58.21%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.76
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
gemini-2.5-flash-lite
Processed At
2026-05-19T06:53:43
External Post ID
XJ5RcFFViws
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis covers Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), and Crude Oil (USOIL). Gold is currently trading around 4673.00, with a support level identified at 4645.00 and a resistance at 4705.00. The trend is described as flat to weak, suggesting consolidation or a potential downturn if support breaks. Silver is showing a positive trend, currently priced at 84.24, with a support at 85.50 and a target resistance at 88.20. The prediction is for continued bullish momentum. Crude Oil (USOIL) is also exhibiting a positive trend, trading near 101.49. Key support is seen at 99.80 and resistance at 103.50, with the outlook being bullish, anticipating further upward movement. The speaker notes that the market sentiment for oil is influenced by geopolitical events and economic data, such as inflation reports and central bank policies, which could impact these price levels. The video also touches upon the potential impact of US inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on these commodities.

Original Caption

Highest Inflation in 3 Years | Gold and Crude Oil Report 14 May Highest Inflation in 3 Years | Gold and Crude Oil Report 14 May Gold ( XAUUSD ) , XAGUSD ( Silver ) and Crude Oil Weekly Analysis and Crucial Levels https://youtu.be/DAStrIOnDsU Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for economic data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/mohammadarafat.official #xauusd #xagusd #crudeoil #forex #goldsignal #xauusdsignal #forexsignal #mcx #nifty #commodity #goldnews these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos related keywords gold trading video in hindi. forex video in urdu. gold support today. silver resistance. crude oil support level. euro trading resistance. gbpusd chart support today. live gold usd technical analysis. gold technical analysis next week. gold technical analysis today. xauusd trading strategy. xauusd forecast next week. xauusd news today. xauusd analysis today live. xauusd analysis tomorrow uae. xauusd strategy. silver trading strategy today. forex trading strategies. forex trading live. forex trading ideas. eurusd forex forecast. eur usd forecast today. eur usd analysis today dubai. eurusd prediction. gbp usd analysis. gbp usd weekly analysis. gbpusd forex forecast. gbp usd forecast today. crude oil intraday trading strategy. crude oil news live today. crude oil strategy qatar. crude oil trading strategies oman. crude oil live trading. crude oil live signals. forex signals live. bitcoin technical analysis bahrain. ethusd trading levels. daily bitcoin technical levels

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal