Prediction Case File
XAUUSDforexbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2025-08-14T16:42:04dailyfundamental
Live Outcome
-0.92%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
3,335.19995117
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
3,300
Predicted objective
Invalidation
3,366
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
3,354.54
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
1.06%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.92%
Risk / Reward
1.14
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-0.92%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-14T16:42:04
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-14T17:00:00
Resolved At
2025-08-14T17:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-14T17:00:00
Max High
3,385
Max High At
-
Min Low
3,335.19995117
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
0.28h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.26
Success Rate
58.21%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.76
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
e4EtR38ZlgU
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis discusses gold currently trading around $3,355. Core PPI data is expected today, anticipated to show increased inflation. The analyst believes gold is awaiting this data. Gold should have risen, but did not, because of core PPI data. Core PPI is expected to increase and analyst says, if that happens, gold might fall, with monthly PPI and unemployment claims also influencing the price. Analyst mentions that Core PPI came at 0.9 percent which is very bad. Analyst is expecting gold to fall to $3300 and puts $3366 as the level at which his analysis is proven wrong. Mentions unemployment claims came lower which might mean flattening. Mentions Silver hasn't fallen which shows strength and gold too. The data is negative for gold and he does expect gold to fall.

Original Caption

US PPI Data | Inflation Data from US | GOLD Analysis 14-15 August | XAUUSD Forex MCX Update | MCX LEVELS LIVE Gold Price Prediction this week https://youtu.be/eD7rPDgNtAs Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/itsarafatlive #xauusdanalysis #forexsignalsprovider #forexgoldanalysis #forexgoldupdate #goldforecast #goldprediction #cryptotrading #mcx #corepceindex #inflationusa #cpidata these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos related keywords tomorrow gold market prediction best strategy for commodity trading US NFP Data Usa Unemployment rate tomorrow market prediction best tradingview indicator for xauusd best trading strategy for crypto forex trading for beginners in india gold technical analysis today crude oil prediction for tomorrow gold signals provider in dubai gold prediction for next week tomorrow commodity market prediction mcx gold report gold price analysis today natural gas prediction tomorrow how to trade xauusd crude oil best trading strategy in uae gold forecast provider in bangladesh easy gold analysis video in hindi best technical analysis for forex trading in urdu trading guide for silver price usa cpi data inflation data usa update silver market analysis

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal