Prediction Case File
USOILstockbullishLive Pending

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Mohammad Arafat2026-03-14T05:21:34dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-22.07%
Performance since published
Pending
Publish Price
99.30999756
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
77.38999939
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
120
Predicted objective
Invalidation
75
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
99.3
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
20.83%
Initial Invalidation Distance
24.48%
Risk / Reward
0.85
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-22.07%
active
Current Price
77.38999939
Live Score
63.05
Distance to Target Now
55.06%
Distance to Invalidation Now
3.09%
Price Structure Valid
Yes
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
40%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable40.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-03-14T05:21:34
First Checked
2026-05-19T01:51:13
Last Checked
2026-06-16T01:31:42
Resolved
-
Resolved At
-
Resolved Candle
-
Max High
117.62999725
Max High At
2026-04-07T15:00:00
Min Low
78.97000122
Min Low At
2026-04-17T14:00:00
Time To Result
-h
Result
Pending
Validation Status
Daily
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Mohammad Arafat
YouTube · @mohammadarafatofficial
Reliability
64.26
Success Rate
58.21%
Consistency
96.37
Risk Adjusted
-0.76
Avg Return
0.27%
Avg Quality
3.52
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
WSFSdNFEOKY
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis covers gold and oil prices. Gold is in a bullish trend, with support at 4400 and resistance at 5420. Oil is also in a bullish trend, with support at 75 and resistance at 120. The speaker notes that geopolitical events, specifically the war, are influencing these markets. Upcoming economic data releases, including CAD and USD CPI data, and central bank policy statements from Japan and Europe, will be crucial for market direction.

Original Caption

FED Week GOLD Price Forecast 16 to 20 March | CRUDE OIL Price Critical Levels on Chart | SILVER PRICE NEXT WEEK | US attack Iran's Crown Jewel | Impact on Crude Oil Prices Signals performance https://www.mohdarafat.com/performance-2/ Contact helpline on whatsapp by clicking link below https://wa.me/message/PGRKCLSKWNMBP1 OR Whatsapp +91-7088230622 (Text Only) for Market commentary and paid signal details Official Whatsapp channel for economic data and news update https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VadcM3n7NoZuUqpsXU05 Telegram Official channel for live market updates https://t.me/mohammadarafatofficial X https://x.com/itsarafat Instagram https://www.instagram.com/mohammadarafat.official #xauusdanalysis #forexgoldanalysis #forexgoldupdate #goldforecast #goldprediction #goldsignals #xauusdsignals #silveranalysis #mcx #goldprice #mcxliveupdates #mcxcrudeoil #silverpriceprediction #goldrateprediction #goldtradingstrategy #iranwarupdate #usairanconflict #iranusaconflict #fedmeeting #fomcmeeting these videos are for educational purpose only . No trading action should be taken basis on my videos

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
Yes
Verified Outcome
No
Included in Analyst Score
No
Included in Target Consensus
Yes
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
Not Final Result
Target Consensus Exclusion
-