Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JB Cycles2025-05-11T10:10:35monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-0.72%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
5,659.14990234
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
4,800
Predicted objective
Invalidation
5,700
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
5,200
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
15.18%
Initial Invalidation Distance
0.72%
Risk / Reward
21.03
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-0.72%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-05-11T10:10:35
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-05-12T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-05-12T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-05-12T13:30:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
27.32h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JB Cycles
YouTube · @jbcycles
Reliability
33.64
Success Rate
21.88%
Consistency
66.69
Risk Adjusted
12.25
Avg Return
13.62%
Avg Quality
3.14
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
5O9PW7C6Ils
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst is looking for a 10-week oscillation high on May 11. The analysis considers 56yr, 28yr and 3.5 yr cycles. A 4-week cycle in green is turning down to a 2-week oscillation low. The bias for the coming week is bearish. There is a 28-year cycle in the inflation-adjusted S&P, alternating between war and financial crisis cycles. The war cycle dominates every 56 years. The analyst mentioned he is looking at an analog from the 1970s projecting a bearish outlook for the next year, also global deaths are currently on war cycle top of 56 yr cycle between 2022-2032. 3.5 year cycle is bearish. There is also analysis related to how to address current market depending on a 3.5 yr bullish market.

Original Caption

Today I am looking at the "10-week oscillation". We could be at the top right now, or we could have a bull-trap topping just above the 200MA around May.23. Anything more bullish that is not what my cycles suggest, but that does not mean it is impossible. Also I am using my 300$ headset today... hope the sound is better :D

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal