Prediction Case File
APLDstockbullishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options2026-01-21T03:00:42monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-18.5%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
35.45999908
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
99
Predicted objective
Invalidation
28.9
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
36.13
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bullish
Normalized Market Direction
Bullish
Initial Target Distance
179.19%
Initial Invalidation Distance
18.5%
Risk / Reward
9.69
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-18.5%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
80%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2026-01-21T03:00:42
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2026-02-05T05:00:00
Resolved At
2026-02-05T05:00:00
Resolved Candle
2026-02-05T05:00:00
Max High
-
Max High At
-
Min Low
-
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
361.98h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Rick Orford - Trading Stocks and Options
YouTube · @RickOrford
Reliability
46.28
Success Rate
32.44%
Consistency
71.28
Risk Adjusted
-10.51
Avg Return
0.68%
Avg Quality
3.57
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
b3k9dgy5wyw
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

Applied Digital (APLD) has seen significant gains, up 323% over the last 52 weeks and over 16,000% since 2021. Analyst consensus indicates a 'Strong Buy' rating with an average of 4.75 out of 5. The high price target of $99 suggests an upside of approximately 174% from its recent closing price. The company is executing on major contracted build-outs, expanding long-term revenue visibility, and adding strategic focus through the Chronoscale spinout, supporting a continued bullish outlook.

Original Caption

Applied Digital stock surged 323% in a year, 16,000% since 2021! Analysts say strong buy, with potential 174% upside. Expanding visibility & strategic spinout. #AppliedDigital #StockAnalysis #Investment #TechStocks

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal