Prediction Case File
TSLAstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Wicked Stocks2025-10-03T16:18:53weeklytechnical
Live Outcome
-8.18%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
429.83999634
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
402.97
Predicted objective
Invalidation
465
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
436
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
6.25%
Initial Invalidation Distance
8.18%
Risk / Reward
0.76
Timeframe
Weekly
Live Position
-8.18%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-10-03T16:18:53
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-28T04:00:00
Resolved At
2025-10-28T04:00:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-28T04:00:00
Max High
429.83999634
Max High At
-
Min Low
429.83999634
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
587.68h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Wicked Stocks
YouTube · @wickedstocks8906
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33%
Consistency
89.81
Risk Adjusted
-4.3
Avg Return
-0.85%
Avg Quality
3.84
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
3Fto_HJl2i4
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis for TSLA on October 3, 2025, anticipates a 5 to 8-month objective of 524.11. The market has been testing the channel top at 464.18, and potentially could top out through October, falling back to new channel support just below 361.85. Closing below 437.13 is considered an aggressive down pivot, having tested 464.18. If closing below 437.13, there is no good reason to be long TSLA for 3 to 5-day traders. The target is 402.97 within 3 to 5 days and the range of 340s to 360s within 3 to 5 weeks. The likely outcome is a fall to 423.24, a former channel top. A close below 437.13 would lead to an expectation of 402.97 within 3 to 5 days. Conversely, closing above 464.18 suggests staying long or getting long, with the 524.11 target likely realized in as little as 3 to 5 weeks. Day traders can buy at 437.13, assuming the market opens above it. If the market opens below it could show weakness with a fall to 402.97 by the closing bell and is likely to be a fall to 423.24.

Original Caption

$437.13 is the critical pivot — below it, swing traders should be short, targeting $403 and lower. But a close above $461.18 allows longs to remain positioned for $524.11. Full Tesla Analysis for Oct 3, 2025

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal