Prediction Case File
TGTstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-09-20T19:29:42monthlyfundamental
Live Outcome
-7.83%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
88.09999847
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
70
Predicted objective
Invalidation
95
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
88.13
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
20.54%
Initial Invalidation Distance
7.83%
Risk / Reward
2.62
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-7.83%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
100%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable100.00%
Derived Quality88.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-20T19:29:42
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-10-23T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-10-23T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-10-23T13:30:00
Max High
92.16999817
Max High At
-
Min Low
85.36000061
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
786h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.72
Success Rate
33.18%
Consistency
82.78
Risk Adjusted
-8.03
Avg Return
-1.16%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
vW9In53xN5g
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a fundamental analysis of three stocks: PayPal (PYPL), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), and Target (TGT).For PYPL, the analysis notes a 61% decline over five years, indicating a long base formation, and growing active accounts. Despite revenue growth deceleration, it's accelerating. With $7B in free cash flow and significant share buybacks, the analyst infers a target price of $100. The analysis will be invalidated at $60.BMY trades at seven times earnings with a sustainable dividend yield. Despite impending patent expirations, the video highlights BMY’s strategy of acquiring new drugs to maintain free cash flow. It is assigned a target of $60 and fail price of $40.Target's comp sales have been negative and depend greatly on discretionary expenditures, resulting in a negative outlook. The analysis will be invalidated at a price of $95, with an inferred target of $70.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an analysis on Paypal stock, BMY stock and TGT stock MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt 0:00 First stock 7:08 2nd stock 11:24 3rd stock FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal