Prediction Case File
SPXstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

JB Cycles2025-07-12T23:52:09monthlytechnical
Live Outcome
-3.86%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
6,258.35009766
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
4,792
Predicted objective
Invalidation
6,500
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
6,300
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
23.43%
Initial Invalidation Distance
3.86%
Risk / Reward
6.07
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-3.86%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality64.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-07-12T23:52:09
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-28T17:30:00
Resolved At
2025-08-28T17:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-28T17:30:00
Max High
6,500.49023438
Max High At
-
Min Low
6,201.58984375
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,121.62h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

JB Cycles
YouTube · @jbcycles
Reliability
33.64
Success Rate
21.88%
Consistency
66.69
Risk Adjusted
12.25
Avg Return
13.62%
Avg Quality
3.14
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
K--31Wmn4kU
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analysis suggests the market is currently at a cycle top, projecting a bearish outlook for the upcoming weeks, an ABC correction formation could happen soon, with bearish signs for the coming week. While cycles are a bit out of phase. The yellow line, representing recent cycle averages, also points towards a bearish trend. Historical data indicates the market is overbought, needing a correction below the 20-day moving average. Wavelet analysis implies potential pullback, with scenarios for a double top or topping formation, despite VIX wavelet projections hinting further upside. The number of days above the 20-day moving average is historically high, suggesting a need to drop below it, and the price should drop at around 4792 during the next 12 months. These technicals point towards possible bearish trend for the SPX.

Original Caption

We made a low in June... but not the kind I was looking for. Now the 17-week cycle is topping, but I can´t see a good setup for a top yet. And what kind of decline can we get down into Aug-Sept? -a big double top is still possible, and a downtrend into 2026 some time -but a big cup-and-handle is maybe more likely... an ABC where the B-down soon begins, and a final C-top in the fall?

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal