Prediction Case File
US10YstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2025-09-18T06:04:08monthlynews
Live Outcome
-10.4%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
4.07599974
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
3.5
Predicted objective
Invalidation
4.5
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
4.087
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
14.13%
Initial Invalidation Distance
10.4%
Risk / Reward
1.36
Timeframe
Monthly
Live Position
-10.4%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate60.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality60.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-18T06:04:08
First Checked
2026-05-19T01:30:15
Last Checked
2026-05-19T01:30:15
Resolved
2026-05-19T01:30:15
Resolved At
2026-05-19T01:30:15
Resolved Candle
2026-05-13T15:20:00
Max High
4.5
Max High At
2026-05-13T15:20:00
Min Low
3.94700003
Min Low At
2025-10-21T13:20:00
Time To Result
5,827.43h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.81
Success Rate
42.2%
Consistency
89.08
Risk Adjusted
-11.11
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.27
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
749vj7zdkn8
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video discusses the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and analyzes its potential impact on various financial markets. It highlights that the Fed is prioritizing the labor market over inflation, projecting three rate cuts for the year and a historical pace of rate reductions into increasing inflation.The video mentions new highs and also states Bitcoin to wick down to $100k with 15% drop from the current price.The analysis points to the potential for new all-time highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and the stock market, as well as declining activity for home buying.

Original Caption

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Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal