Prediction Case File
AAPLstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-09-07T17:18:52long_termfundamental
Live Outcome
-4.31%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
239.66999817
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
200
Predicted objective
Invalidation
250
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
239.69
Original Analyst Trend
Bullish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
16.55%
Initial Invalidation Distance
4.31%
Risk / Reward
3.84
Timeframe
Long Term
Live Position
-4.31%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
100%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable100.00%
Derived Quality84.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-09-07T17:18:52
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-09-22T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-09-22T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-09-22T13:30:00
Max High
252.73500061
Max High At
-
Min Low
225.95219421
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
356.18h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.72
Success Rate
33.18%
Consistency
82.78
Risk Adjusted
-8.03
Avg Return
-1.16%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
Dcw5H4El_z4
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a fundamental analysis of the Magnificent Seven stocks, giving an inferred fair value. Google is likely to grow 12-13% annually without multiple expansion, with a Google Cloud growth rate of 31%. The speaker likes Amazon and expects cloud to double. However, Amazon's cash flow is decelerating and its growth is around 17%. Meta is trading at 26.5 times earnings, and the analysis mentions this. Microsoft is overvalued based on analyst estimates; 421-481 is considered as a fair valuation entry point for it. A valuation is given with a timeframe, although a general one.

Original Caption

Friends! In This Video Im going to Analyze the Magnificent 7 Stocks. MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI & 15% off if you decide to subscribe https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient 0:00 Google 4:32 Amazon 8:08 Meta 11:05 Microsoft 14:05 Nvidia 18:39 Apple 19:44 Tesla

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal