The Bitcoin market exhibits conflicting signals: long-term holders are currently distributing Bitcoin at an unprecedented pace, having sold over 5% of the circulating supply in the last three months. Historically, such selling pressure preceded significant market drawdowns, including 75-85% bear markets or 30% corrections. Conversely, new large entities are actively accumulating Bitcoin, with approximately 100 new wallets acquiring 1,000+ BTC each in the past month, a pattern that previously led to a 90% rally within two months. On-chain analysis of the Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio indicates a drop to 1.0, signifying a substantial amount of stablecoin buying power on the sidelines, traditionally seen during market bottoms rather than tops. Furthermore, Vanguard, a major asset manager with $11 trillion in assets, has softened its stance on crypto, now allowing clients to trade crypto ETFs. This development opens a new, conservative, and long-term source of institutional demand for Bitcoin. Technically, Bitcoin has experienced a Death Cross, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) fell below the 200-day SMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. However, historical data since 2019 shows that in four out of six such instances, Bitcoin rallied back to its 200-day SMA, which is currently at $109,000. If Bitcoin can establish a base and reclaim this level, a broader bullish momentum shift is anticipated, though short-term caution remains warranted.