The market is pricing in Frexit? #trading
1 extracted signal · 0 resolved · 1 still active
Looking for Black SwansIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 11 Oct 2026, 11:47 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 11 Oct 2026, 15:43 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis focuses on the spread between French and German 10-year bonds against the Euro-Dollar pair. The French spread has shown a significant increase, particularly around 2016 and a notable spike in early 2022 due to energy shocks. The Euro-Dollar is presented inversely, indicating that a rise in the Euro-Dollar represents a weaker Euro. The analysis highlights a projected scenario for 2026 where the spread is expected to soar, while the Euro barely moves or potentially weakens further, breaking below 1.12. The current French spread is around 1.50%, with a projected target of 1.6%, suggesting a bullish outlook for the spread. Conversely, the Euro-Dollar is currently around 1.116, with a predicted target of 0.95, indicating a bearish outlook for the Euro. The analysis suggests 'contagion' rather than 'Frexit' as a potential driver. The timeframe for this analysis appears to be longer-term, indicated by the projection towards 2026.
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