Bitcoin's Power Law Was Discovered in 2013. The Model Still Holds.
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Sminston WithIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 07 Sept 2026, 20:05 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 07 Sept 2026, 21:12 UTC
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The analysis focuses on historical Bitcoin price data from 2009 to 2023, examining its relationship with a power law model. Two distinct approaches are presented: Jim618's 2011 method, which ranked holders, matched supply, and extended observations, and Dcoinminster's 2013 method, which plotted price history, switched to log-log scales, and used Excel for fit and extension. The Dcoinminster model, a power law fit derived from price and time, shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price trajectory. Specifically, the logarithmic price fit for t=days since genesis is log10P = -17.12 + 5.84*log10(t), with the shaded band representing the 5th-95th percentile channel. While acknowledging that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the analysis projects potential price implications for 2029-2031. The base projection for 2031 is $279K (5th percentile) and the top projection is $837K (95th percentile), with a stated range from $250K to $840K. The presenter highlights that this model, developed in February 2013 when Bitcoin was around $25, has surprisingly accurately predicted price movements, with a current model projection indicating a price of $93,725 and a price of $80,837 from an earlier projection, suggesting continued adherence to the power law trend.
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