Which Way, Bitcoin/Business Cycle?
1 extracted signal · 1 resolved · 0 still active
Sminston WithIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 07 Aug 2026, 16:42 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 18 Aug 2026, 16:08 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The video analyzes the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, suggesting that while the long-term trend of Bitcoin's correlation with the business cycle remains positive and increasing, short-term fluctuations show a decoupling. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin's velocity (rate of change) tends to accelerate during periods where the PMI is above 50, indicating economic expansion. Specifically, the current PMI reading for July 2026 is 55.6, which, according to historical data, historically correlates with significant Bitcoin upside. However, the analysis also notes that short-term (24-month rolling) correlations have recently turned negative, indicating that while the long-term trend is still strong, the short-term relationship is becoming less predictive and potentially inverted. The key takeaway is that despite short-term volatility, the underlying business cycle dynamics are still expected to support Bitcoin's upward trend in the long run, though with potential for increased short-term fluctuations.
AI-generated summary based on the source content.
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Sminston With
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