Bitcoin Has Never Seen This Dollar (DXY) Cycle
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Joe BurnettIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 20 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:48 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The video analyzes the historical relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin's performance. It highlights that every major Bitcoin bull run has coincided with a falling dollar. Historically, the DXY has experienced secular declines, with peaks around 160 in 1985, 121 in 2001, and 114 in 2022. The analysis suggests that the DXY might be entering a new secular decline phase, potentially targeting lows around 71. This is supported by a 2-month rate of change velocity indicator, which shows the dollar's trend is currently flat after a recent rise. Past data indicates that when the dollar falls, Bitcoin tends to perform positively, with the strongest gains occurring during periods of significant dollar depreciation. Conversely, when the dollar rises, Bitcoin's performance has been negative. The analysis projects that if the DXY falls from its current level of approximately 101.5 to around 71, this would represent a secular breakdown, a scenario Bitcoin has never experienced before. Such a scenario is posited to be a significant tailwind for Bitcoin, potentially leading to extraordinary gains. The video also points out that Bitcoin's biggest rallies have occurred during periods of dollar weakness, suggesting a strong correlation.
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Joe Burnett
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