A Simple Model for Bitcoin's Long Term Floor
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Joe Burnett21 Jul 2026, 12:45 UTC
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The video presents a technical analysis of Bitcoin using a historical power law model, suggesting that past bear market lows follow a predictable pattern. The analysis posits that each subsequent bear market establishes a higher floor than the previous one. This model, with a reported R-squared value of 0.9897, projects potential floor prices for Bitcoin at specific future dates: approximately $61,000 by July 2026, $188,000 by July 2030, and $390,000 by July 2035. The presenter suggests that this pattern, observed in various natural phenomena and human systems, indicates a tendency for exponential growth in Bitcoin adoption and value over time. While acknowledging that such models are not perfect predictors and may eventually break, the presenter believes the current trend suggests a potential upward break from the established power law, implying a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. The analysis highlights that technological advancements, like AI and automation, are accelerating wealth creation, which could further support Bitcoin's value growth.
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Joe Burnett
Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.