$4,150 to $6,000 — What Five Major Banks Are Telling Clients About Gold Right Now

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The analysis focuses on five major banks' forecasts for gold. Several banks have revised their gold price targets downwards. Goldman Sachs, for instance, revised its year-end 2026 target from $5708 to $4900, citing softer first-half performance and reduced ETF inflow expectations. Their bullish scenario targets $7200 if geopolitical risk escalates. J.P. Morgan maintains a target of $6000 for year-end, built on assumptions of persistent central bank accumulation and a flat mine supply. They also predict a potential return to sustained outflows from Western ETFs if real yields ease. In contrast, UBS has a target of $5400-$5500 for this year, with an upside scenario of $8000 if geopolitical risks escalate. Bank of America, however, has a more aggressive stance with a 12-month target of $6000, based on structural central bank demand and expected ETF recovery, viewing this demand as a constant rather than a cyclical variable. The core reasoning across all five banks centers on structural central bank demand being constrained by mine supply and an eventual ETF recovery, forming the foundation for targets that sit above current prices. The analysis highlights that these are working forecasts, subject to updates based on near-term data, and that the banks' models have been underestimating central bank demand by a significant margin.

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