Prediction Case File
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Bitcoin's Patient Money Just Hit a Level Seen Only 4 Times in a Decade

1 extracted signal · 0 resolved · 1 still active

Looking for Black Swans profile imageLooking for Black SwansIndependent analyst profile
Source published
13 Aug 2026, 15:50 UTC
Recorded by Tahlil Plus
13 Aug 2026, 17:35 UTC
Video preview for Bitcoin's Patient Money Just Hit a Level Seen Only 4 Times in a Decade
Source overview

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's historical price action in relation to long-term holder supply in profit. The chart displays four distinct cycles where the 'percent supply in profit' metric hit historically low levels, followed by significant price increases for Bitcoin. The blue line, representing the 'percent supply in profit', shows a pattern of dipping to an unusually low base, which historically indicates a potential buying opportunity. The red arrows and boxes highlight these historical moments. The analysis suggests that when this metric drops significantly, it signifies periods of potential accumulation. The speaker notes that the breadth of the red boxes, representing the duration of these low points, also correlates with the intensity of the subsequent price move. The implication is that understanding these cycles and the underlying sentiment of long-term holders can provide predictive insights into future Bitcoin price movements. The current state of the market is discussed in the context of these historical patterns, suggesting that while past performance is not indicative of future results, these cycles offer a framework for analyzing Bitcoin's potential.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Live evaluation

Signal outcomes at a glance

Tracking Live
Signals
1
Extracted from this source
Open
1
Still being tracked
Successful
0
Resolved successfully
Failed
0
Resolved unsuccessfully
Other
0
Cancelled, invalid or excluded
Resolved success
0 resolved; open signals omitted
Extracted intelligence

Signals in this source

Case timeline

Evidence and evaluation progress

  1. Original source published

    The analyst published the original source item.

  2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

    The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

  3. Market predictions extracted

    1 eligible signal linked to this case.

  4. Source processing completed

    Source analysis and structured extraction completed.

  5. Outcome tracking started

    Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

  6. Live evaluation in progress

    1 signal remains active.

Analyst snapshot

Looking for Black Swans

Platform-wide history, separate from this source evaluation.

Reliability
55.6
Tracked signals
19
Historical success
55.6%
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Methodology & disclosure

Tahlil Plus independently records and evaluates public market predictions. Extraction may be AI-assisted and results follow the Tahlil Plus methodology. This information is not financial advice.

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