PlanB Bitcoin Analysis December 2023

AI-generated source summary

The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's performance relative to its stock-to-flow model and its 200-week moving average, highlighting historical market cycles. Each halving event is observed to correlate with a price increase, typically occurring 6 months before and lasting 18 months after. The stock-to-flow model, a key predictor, suggests potential future price targets. The 200-week moving average consistently shows an upward trend, with Bitcoin price generally staying above it, except during severe bear markets. Recent data indicates Bitcoin is in a pre-bull market phase, with its price above key realized cost bases. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is analyzed for momentum, showing typical patterns of boom and bust cycles, with dips indicating fear and peaks indicating greed. The realized return chart shows that most holders who bought before 2021 are still in profit, with recent returns around 20-30%. The market cycle model (MCM) suggests that Bitcoin is moving through predictable phases: accumulation, bull market, distribution, and liquidation. The current phase is identified as pre-bull, with expectations of continued price appreciation in the upcoming months.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   02 Dec 2023, 19:20 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   30 Jul 2026, 04:20 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   30 Jul 2026, 09:34 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Source processing completed

   30 Jul 2026, 09:34 UTC

   Source analysis and structured extraction completed.

5. Outcome tracking started

   30 Jul 2026, 09:35 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

6. First prediction resolved

   30 Jul 2026, 09:35 UTC

   The first evaluable outcome in this case reached a terminal result.

7. Case evaluation completed

   30 Jul 2026, 09:35 UTC

   All evaluable predictions in this case reached terminal outcomes.