PlanB: bitcoin dropped below $100,000 ... what's next?

AI-generated source summary

Bitcoin closed November at $90,000, a 30% dip from its all-time high. The $100,000 support level didn't hold. The stock to flow level suggests a $500,000 target, but the RSI at 55 is bearish. The four-year cycle after the halving is also bearish. Three scenarios are considered: a bear market similar to 2014, 2018, or 2022, which could lead to a 50% drop from here down to $50,000; a pre-bull market like 2019; or a new normal with the RSI ranging between 55 and 75 due to institutional investors, resulting in rebalancing by institutions that buy at dips and sell at highs, maintaining the Bitcoin price in range. The moving average and realized price suggest a bull market ahead. Also, moving average and the realized prices are both around $56000.

AI-generated summary based on the source content.

Evidence and evaluation progress

1. Original source published

   04 Dec 2025, 16:32 UTC

   The analyst published the original source item.

2. Source recorded by Tahlil Plus

   18 May 2026, 20:23 UTC

   The public source was preserved as the evidence record for this case.

3. Market predictions extracted

   18 May 2026, 20:47 UTC

   1 eligible signal linked to this case.

4. Outcome tracking started

   19 May 2026, 02:08 UTC

   Tahlil Plus began monitoring the extracted predictions.

5. Live evaluation in progress

   01 Aug 2026, 02:35 UTC

   1 signal remains active.