GLD PUT-CALL SKEW HIT 1.03 — The Signal That Called Every Gold Turning Point for a Decade

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The analysis hinges on the put-call skew of GLD (Gold ETF), which is near 10-year highs, suggesting significant investor fear and a potential reversal. Historically, when this metric hits such highs, gold prices have seen corrections. The current price of gold is around $2026/oz, with a target of $2200/oz by year-end. The fail-safe bound is set at $1950/oz, below which the bullish outlook is invalidated. The provided chart data indicates gold's historical price movements and the put-call skew data suggests that elevated fear, as indicated by the skew at 1.08 (2+ standard deviations above the mean), has preceded significant gold price downturns in the past. However, the analysis also points to strong central bank buying, with record purchases in recent years, which provides a supportive floor for gold prices. The base case scenario from various institutions like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan suggests a range between $4,900 to $6,300 by the end of 2026, with a prob-weighted expected value of $4,800. This indicates a generally bullish outlook for gold, supported by geopolitical tensions and potential Fed pivot easing that could weaken the dollar and boost gold's safe-haven appeal.

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