The NASDAQ Just Did Something It's Never Done — Here's Where It Goes Next
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Looking for Black SwansIndependent analyst profile- Source published
- 19 Jul 2026, 15:05 UTC
- Recorded by Tahlil Plus
- 20 Jul 2026, 14:18 UTC
AI-generated source summary
The analysis presents a forward-looking view of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) index based on its historical price action across different market regimes. Three distinct speeds of ascent are identified: the pre-2020 decade (average ~60 pts/month), the post-COVID burst (average ~490 pts/month), and the AI rally (average ~460 pts/month). The current market is characterized by AI-driven growth, with the index currently at 28,593. The analysis projects four potential scenarios for the next 12-18 months: a bullish scenario targeting 33,900 (25% probability), a base case targeting 29,800 (40% probability), a bearish scenario targeting 21,700 (25% probability), and a black swan scenario targeting 14,300 (10% probability). The primary driver discussed for the current market strength is AI, which is enabling companies to achieve growth at an unprecedented pace. The analysis also contrasts the current situation with historical market cycles, noting that while previous tech booms (like the Dot-com bubble) saw significant drawdowns (over 80%), the current AI-driven rally has only experienced a minor pullback to date (-7% from ATH). The underlying premise is that while market cycles repeat, the pace and drivers of growth can differ, with AI being the dominant force in the current cycle.
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