@CryptoJebb
YouTube
Avg. Quality
74
Success Rate
14.61
Analysis
89
Correct
13
Fail
66
Pending
9
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
BTCUSDT
Long Entry
95,526.6000
2026-01-17
00:01 UTC
Target
99,343.0000
Fail
93,949.0000
Risk/Reward
1 : 2
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The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's current corrective movement following a rally to approximately $98,000. It identifies this as potentially the B-wave within a larger ABC corrective structure, contrasting it with the primary bull market uptrend that topped at $126,000. Key resistance levels are noted between $98,000 and $101,000, attributed to the 50 weekly exponential and simple moving averages, as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on both logarithmic ($95,700) and regular ($98,000) weekly charts. Failure to breach the 0.382 Fibonacci is projected to lead to declines into the high $70,000s or $60,000s.
Conversely, a bullish Elliott Wave 1-2-3-4-5 impulse pattern is identified on the 1-hour chart, with the top of the first wave serving as current support. Bitcoin's price movements, including a rally to $94,800, subsequent rejection, breakout, and retest of $94,800, align with this pattern. The Elliott Wave rule states that the fourth wave cannot overlap the first wave's territory. A long trade setup is proposed from the current support level of the fourth wave, targeting just below $100,000 (specifically $99,343), with a conservative stop-loss at $93,949, yielding a favorable risk-reward ratio of 5.48. Fundamental factors such as quantitative easing, a pro-cryptocurrency political stance, equity rallies, and a blow-off top in precious metals are cited as additional drivers for a potential upward trajectory, suggesting a parabolic growth curve for Bitcoin. Traders are advised to protect profits by moving stop-losses up as the market moves favorably.