@thepatientinvestorr

YouTube

Avg. Quality

74

Success Rate

21.82

Analysis

110
Correct
24
Fail
39
Pending
47
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Fail
HIMS
Long Entry 40.0350 2025-12-05 01:28 UTC
Target 78.8400 Fail 30.0000 In 1 Months
Risk/Reward 1 : 4
Turn Signals into Profit
Join Tahlil Plus Pro to unlock full performance history, live alerts, and AI-backed risk tools.
Start Free
Final PnL
-25.07%
P/L:
Turn Signals into Profit
Join Tahlil Plus Pro to unlock full performance history, live alerts, and AI-backed risk tools.
Start Free
HIMS
Fail
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bull Market
The analysis focuses on Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS), presenting both a bearish and a bullish thesis for its stock performance. The speaker initially references a previous bullish call on HIMS on January 1, 2025, when the stock was at $24.18, predicting it could double to over $50 in 2025. As of December 4, 2025, HIMS is trading at $39.42, having seen a 56.43% year-to-date increase, although it experienced a 7.88% decline in the past month. He outlines bearish concerns: a plateau in quarterly revenue growth, especially in the last three quarters, suggesting peak revenues. Subscriber growth has also significantly slowed, from 550,000 to 2.5 million, with slow growth in recent quarters. Gross margins are noted to have decreased from 82% to 73%, indicating a lack of competitive moat and pressure from competitors like Amazon. Furthermore, marketing efficiency is declining, with the cost to acquire a new subscriber increasing substantially to $7,255. However, the speaker presents a bullish counter-argument. He attributes the recent revenue deceleration to HIMS transitioning away from mass-selling GLP-1 (weight loss drugs) due to previous supply shortages, praising the company for maintaining revenue despite this shift. The increased marketing spend is explained as an investment in international expansion, as HIMS moved from only the US and UK at the start of 2025 to include Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, and Canada by year-end. He argues that initial marketing costs in new territories are high but efficiency improves with market penetration. Additionally, HIMS is diversifying its offerings beyond weight loss, launching new services like blood testing labs, peptide facilities, testosterone, menopause treatments, and blood drawing devices, with a $1 billion funding round. These initiatives are expected to tap into massive total addressable markets (TAMs) in areas like mental health and longevity. With a current valuation of approximately 3 times sales, the speaker believes HIMS is undervalued for a company with its growth potential and strategic diversification. He anticipates the stock could potentially trade at 5 to 10 times sales over the long term, predicting a doubling in 2026, reaching approximately $78.84, with a failure bound inferred at $30.00 if the bullish thesis does not materialize. The company's 2030 guidance of at least $6.5 billion in revenue further supports this long-term positive outlook.
Principled
Comprehensible
Accurate
Fast Result