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Avg. Quality

75

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17.22

Analysis

546
Correct
94
Fail
281
Pending
169
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Fail
INTC
Short Entry 41.4100 2025-12-08 01:28 UTC
Target 29.0000 Fail 46.2400 In 1 Months
Risk/Reward 1 : 3
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Final PnL
-11.66%
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INTC
Fail
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
The analysis focuses on Intel's financial performance and valuation. Total revenue for Intel (INTC) exhibited a fluctuating trend, starting at $59.4 billion in 2016, peaking at $79 billion in 2021, and subsequently declining to $52 billion by 2024, with a projected slight recovery to $54.5 billion in 2025. This represents a total change of -0.38% over the period with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -1.2%. Investors are hopeful for the foundry business to attract new customers, including NVIDIA and Apple, potentially driven by US administration efforts to encourage domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Despite efforts, Intel's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has significantly collapsed from a high of 19.7% in 2018, falling to -12% in 2024, before a modest rebound to -0.2% in the most recent period. Concurrently, the Cash Flow from Operations (OCF) to Sales ratio has also declined, moving from levels above 35% in earlier years to 15.6%. This financial deterioration led to a change in leadership, with the new CEO prioritizing prudent capital expenditure in manufacturing expansion and technology. Based on a proprietary discounted cash flow model, the intrinsic value per share for Intel is calculated at $29.00. The current market price for INTC is $40.21, reflecting an overvaluation relative to its intrinsic value. Given the intrinsic valuation and financial performance trends, a bearish outlook on valuation is inferred. The analyst reiterates a 'Hold/Market Perform' rating for Intel stock through 2026.
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