The analysis of Dogecoin (DOGEUSDT) indicates a bearish outlook within an established downtrend channel originating from October. The current price is approximately 0.1448. A critical resistance level is identified at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, located around 0.16. Should Dogecoin fail to decisively break above this 0.16 level, the price is projected to experience a significant bearish move, potentially reaching the bottom of the established channel, which is approximated at 0.10. This price point is also aligned with filling a prior price wick. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 0.16 would trigger a short-term bullish rally, with a potential target at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, approximately 0.18. This 0.18 level also converges with the major downtrend line that began in September. However, even if this short-term rally to 0.18 materializes, a subsequent failure to sustain momentum and break above 0.18 would reconfirm the bearish sentiment, likely leading to a downward movement towards the 0.10 channel bottom. A macro bottom, signifying a sustained bullish reversal for a larger rally towards the 0.22 to 0.25 range, would only be confirmed by a decisive break and hold above the 0.18 resistance level.