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Analysis

223
Correct
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DXY
Short Entry 98.9235 2025-12-05 03:43 UTC
Target 93.9873 Fail 103.8810
Risk/Reward 1 : 1
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DXY
Pending
Forex
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
The analysis projects single-digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2026, targeting 7500, with a challenging first half of the year. The strategy focuses on second-half performance, driven by a broadening of markets beyond technology. In the energy sector, a bullish outlook is given for oil and natural gas. Oil prices are expected to rise to $70-$75, influenced by Saudi Arabia's fiscal needs for large domestic projects and potential US policy shifts under a Trump administration aiming to boost supply to curb inflation. Natural gas prices are also forecasted to climb due to increasing demand from data centers. Uranium is anticipated to see higher prices, reflecting a global trend towards building more nuclear power plants. The real estate and financial sectors are also expected to perform positively. The current average homebuyer age of 51 suggests significant pent-up demand. A Trump administration is predicted to intervene to lower mortgage rates, potentially below 6% or even 4.8% (including variable rates/points), to address housing affordability, thus stimulating housing activity benefiting homebuilders and consumer discretionary spending. Financials are set to gain from increased lending activities and a steepening yield curve. Globally, the US dollar is expected to weaken further as the Federal Reserve implements monetary easing to stimulate the economy. This decline in the dollar is seen as an opportunity for investors to consider international diversification, particularly in European markets, to capitalize on favorable currency differentials and solid company earnings, even if underlying economic growth in Europe is moderate.
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