The analysis suggests Bitcoin is currently experiencing a downturn, reflecting historical patterns of market behavior rather than unique circumstances. A primary reason cited is the consistent topping of Bitcoin prices in Q4 of post-halving years, followed by a subsequent decline into a bear market during the mid-term year. This cyclical observation is reinforced by the comparison of the current market cycle's duration and returns on investment (ROI) from the lows, which align closely with previous cycles, indicating that diminishing returns continue to be a factor. The absence of a significant 'alt season' is noted, attributed to a lack of renewed retail investor interest. Furthermore, the analysis draws parallels between current market conditions and those of 2019, where Bitcoin's price declined despite an increase in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, correlating this with monetary policy and the performance of lower-risk assets like the S&P 500. It is argued that a substantial recovery in Bitcoin typically requires a weakening in traditional markets. The price dropping below the 50-week moving average is highlighted as a bearish signal, historically leading to further declines towards the 100-week and eventually the 200-week moving averages. The prevailing sentiment is that great opportunities for patient investors will emerge in 2026 as the market bottoms out.