The analysis uses fundamental valuation metrics, primarily focusing on forward Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples to project Robinhood's (HOOD) stock price by the end of 2026. For fiscal year 2027, analysts estimate an EPS of $2.53. The current forward P/E ratio for HOOD is noted at 49.7, representing a near-peak valuation since January 2024. The current stock price stands at $122.14. The analysis outlines potential scenarios for 2026 based on P/E multiple fluctuations. If the forward P/E remains at 49.7, the stock price is projected to reach $125.74. However, the analyst emphasizes significant downside risk, with potential price declines to $113.85 if the P/E contracts to 45, $101.20 if it falls to 40, and $75.90 if it reaches 30. This highlights a concern regarding multiple contraction from the current elevated valuation. The substantial year-to-date increase of over 228% for HOOD in 2025 is attributed to robust stock markets, high cryptocurrency valuations, and a favorable deregulatory framework. This framework, especially in expanding into prediction markets, has generated positive market sentiment. However, the analyst cautions that this 'light-touch' regulatory environment and prevailing positive sentiment may not endure, particularly with potential political shifts following future elections. Consequently, a bearish outlook is conveyed, anticipating limited upside and notable downside risks. The projected 2026 year-end price target range is $110-$130, with a midpoint of $120, reflecting this cautious stance.