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ADAUSDT
Short Entry 0.4026 2026-01-15 04:45 UTC
Target 0.3650 Fail 0.4450
Risk/Reward 1 : 1
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ADAUSDT
Cryptocurrency
Technical
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
The analysis of ADAUSD on a 30-minute timeframe details the market's progression from a December low, identifying a five-wave impulse upward, followed by a three-wave decline (A-wave), and a subsequent three-wave rally (B-wave). This B-wave has entered a Fibonacci resistance zone, specifically between 41.6 cents and 43.1 cents. The current price is approximately 41.0 cents, within this resistance. The primary thesis anticipates a subsequent five-wave decline (C-wave) to complete an overall three-wave correction. Key support for this C-wave decline is projected within the range of 34.9 cents to 37.7 cents, corresponding to 78.6% and 37.7% Fibonacci retracement levels from the preceding upward impulse. A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, located at 40.5 cents, would indicate an increased probability of this C-wave decline initiating. While a further extension of the B-wave beyond the January 6th swing high (approximately 43.7 cents) is acknowledged as a possibility due to B-wave characteristics, it is not deemed a definitive upside breakout signal. The overall expectation is for a bearish C-wave decline towards the specified support zone of 34.9-37.7 cents. The target price is set at 36.5 cents, inferred from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement within the projected support range. The fail bound for this bearish prediction is established at 44.5 cents; a sustained move above this level would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook.
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