@abennett
YouTube
Avg. Quality
64
Success Rate
20.00
Analysis
110
Correct
22
Fail
75
Pending
10
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
BTCUSDT
Long Entry
106,200.0000
2025-11-11
01:00 UTC
Target
150,000.0000
Fail
103,500.0000
Risk/Reward
1 : 16
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The analysis, derived from a top-tier crypto AI, assesses the market psychology and future peak predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the overall altcoin market, incorporating 2025 developments. The probability of the cycle having already peaked is estimated at 20%, reflecting bullish on-chain resets (MVRV rebounding post-October deleveraging) and macro support from anticipated Fed cuts, tempered by persistent whale selling and liquidity strains from the government shutdown. Conditions are identified as a mid-cycle reset, not a post-cycle distribution, based on funding rates below 2021 peaks and an Open Interest reset mirroring mid-2021 corrections without euphoria.
Key 2025 developments include the October 10 deleveraging event, which caused $19B in liquidations, purging excess leverage, and a current Bitcoin funding rate of -0.03% (10% APY annualized) akin to mid-cycle resets. Whale distribution shows large holders selling $50B YTD, indicating rotation rather than late-stage selling. The ongoing US government shutdown is tightening liquidity by depleting the Treasury General Account and pausing Quantitative Tightening. ETF creations have slowed, miner selling eased, and stablecoin issuance surged, signaling sidelined capital for an uptrend.
Bitcoin is predicted to peak on January 15, 2026, at $150,000, factoring in post-halving cycles, deleveraging flush, stablecoin growth offsetting whale sells, and potential Fed cuts. Ethereum is predicted to peak on February 20, 2026, at $7,000, lagging Bitcoin by 1-3 months, with staking and DEX volumes supporting. The overall altcoin market is projected to peak on March 25, 2026, at $3.0 trillion, with altcoins peaking 2-4 months post-majors and dominance falling. The AI's predictions show shifts compared to earlier forecasts, reflecting the impact of the deleveraging event and liquidity dynamics.