@DividendData

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If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
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CRM
Long Entry 238.7300 2025-12-04 05:08 UTC
Target 366.3000 Fail 198.5400
Risk/Reward 1 : 3
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CRM
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Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bull Market
The analysis evaluates Salesforce (CRM) following its Q3 2026 earnings, which reported an adjusted EPS of $3.25, surpassing analyst estimates. Revenue growth for Q3 was 9% year-over-year, with subscription and support revenue up 10%. Salesforce maintains its FY26 full-year revenue guidance of $41.45 billion to $41.55 billion, indicating 9-10% year-over-year growth, and has raised its operating cash flow growth guidance to 13-14%. Despite these positive financial indicators, the stock has experienced significant underperformance, declining 28% over the past year and 35% from its peak. The forward P/E ratio stands at 20, a historical low compared to previous years when it traded much higher. A discounted cash flow (DCF) model, incorporating revenue growth projections up to 9% annually, EBIT margins of 34-36%, and low capital expenditure, suggests an intrinsic value ranging from $198.54 (based on a 16.6x free cash flow multiple) to $365.04 (based on a 30x free cash flow multiple). Wall Street analysts share a consensus target price of $366.30. The analysis identifies slowing revenue growth and AI-related risks, such as potential automation impacting seat-based revenue and increased competition from AI-driven solutions, as factors contributing to the stock's decline. However, it also highlights the robust growth of Salesforce's AI product, Agentforce (114% Y-o-Y increase in ARR to $1.4 billion), and high customer switching costs due to extensive ecosystem integration, positioning the stock as a long-term buying opportunity despite current market perception.
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