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SNOW
Short Entry 225.3100 2025-12-08 23:45 UTC
Target 195.0000 Fail 250.0000
Risk/Reward 1 : 1
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SNOW
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
Snowflake's quarterly financial results in early December disappointed investors, leading to a price decline. Since 2019, Snowflake has demonstrated substantial revenue growth, increasing from $100 million to $3.6 billion by 2025. The company's data-related offerings, foundational for artificial intelligence, are experiencing rising demand. However, this demand is not accelerating at the rate investors anticipated, despite a nearly 40% increase in remaining performance obligations in the most recent quarter. A key concern for investors is the inflection point in the company's profitability and profit margins. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) improved significantly from -104% in 2020 to -21.5% by 2023, but subsequently declined to -26.1%. This downward reversal from a negative position is particularly concerning. Similarly, the operating cash flow to sales ratio, while improving from -149% in 2019 to over 30% in 2024, has slightly declined to 26.9% in 2025. These concerns are magnified by Snowflake's premium valuation; its forward price-to-earnings ratio is over 155, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average. A proprietary discounted cash flow analysis indicates an intrinsic value per share of $175.71, suggesting the current market price of $227.14 remains overvalued. Therefore, a price drop of 10% to 15% would be necessary to consider it a buying opportunity for a long-term investment into 2026.
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