The analysis indicates a bearish market sentiment, particularly noting a decline in audience engagement that correlates with market interest reaching new lows. Examination of the weekly Stochastic RSI suggests a potential relief rally. However, if this relief rally fails to materialize, it would confirm a continued bear market. Historically, the market tends to experience a relief rally, but its absence would signify deeper bearish conditions. Current price action shows an 18-day, 16-bar relief bounce of 17% from recent lows. This contrasts with a 46% relief rally observed in 2022, following a larger 52% decline. The current market has only experienced a 36% decline from its peak, suggesting a potential for a further downside. The analyst identifies a target for the current relief rally at 102,000, representing a 27% increase. Critically, the market's position relative to the bull market moving average (green line), specifically remaining below 103,000, is a key indicator. If Bitcoin fails to move above 103,000 by February, a high probability of further capitulation is predicted. Historical market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022 show significant market capitulation around the 140-day mark from market peaks, often occurring in February. For Dogecoin, a failure to make a new all-time high by February, contingent on Bitcoin's performance, is projected to result in a 60-70% decline, potentially pushing the price to 5-7 cents. The analysis emphasizes that breaching the blue moving average typically leads to significant downside until a bottom is formed.