@thepatientinvestorr
YouTube
Avg. Quality
74
Success Rate
21.82
Analysis
110
Correct
24
Fail
39
Pending
47
Ineffective
0
Total Quality
Score
If You Had Traded on This Analysis…
Pending
MELI
Long Entry
2,194.8000
2026-01-07
00:17 UTC
Target
4,825.8800
Fail
1,825.8000
Risk/Reward
1 : 7
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The analysis focuses on MercadoLibre (MELI), currently trading at $2,148.00. The company operates across 19 countries in Latin America, holding a market capitalization of $96 billion. Key growth indicators include a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $50 billion with a 28% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and e-commerce penetration in Latin America at 13%, significantly below mature markets like the USA (24%), UK (29%), and China (32%), suggesting substantial market expansion opportunities. MercadoLibre’s vertically integrated logistics enable rapid delivery, with over 173 million same-day or next-day shipments in Q3'25. The Fintech division, Mercado Pago, boasts 72.2 million monthly active users, growing 29% year-over-year, offering digital accounts, payments, and credit solutions.
However, the analysis highlights fierce competition in Brazil, with Shopee holding a 12.5% market share compared to Mercado Libre's 8.8%, alongside other major players like Amazon, Temu, Shein, and AliExpress. This competitive pressure has led MercadoLibre to reduce its free shipping threshold to R$19 (Brazilian Reais) from R$75-R$79, impacting operating margins, which declined from 13.33% to 9.77% in recent quarters. Revenue growth has also shown deceleration, from 78% in December 2019 to an expected 22% in December 2027.
Despite these challenges, the analysis projects a bullish outlook. Based on a valuation model incorporating current EPS of $40.10 for 2025 and projected EPS growth decelerating from 48% (2026) to 20% (2030), with a target P/E ratio of 30 by 2030, the target share price is estimated at $4,825.88. This represents a 125% upside and a 17.6% CAGR over the next five years. The current forward P/E of 39 is considered fair given the growth prospects.