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TSLA
Short Entry 475.0700 2025-12-16 00:16 UTC
Target 132.5600 Fail 570.0000
Risk/Reward 1 : 4
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TSLA
Stocks
Fundamental
1H
Analysis Predict Bear Market
The analysis focuses on Tesla's vertically integrated business model, noting its historical benefit in magnifying profit margins due to relatively fixed costs during periods of increasing revenue. From 2020 to 2022, Tesla's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) soared from -0.3% to a peak of 30%, which the presenter identifies as an anomalously high period driven by pandemic-era market conditions. However, current data indicates a significant decline in ROIC from 30% down to 4.9%, a trend expected to continue as EV sales decrease and the energy segment slows. Concurrently, operating investments in new technologies like driverless cars and robotics are increasing. Despite this, Tesla's direct-to-consumer business model provides a competitive advantage, enabling it to anticipate declining sales and adjust production accordingly. This flexibility helps control cash flow by matching production with demand more effectively than traditional automakers, leveraging daily customer data from website visits and orders. Based on this fundamental assessment, the intrinsic value per share is calculated at $132.56, starkly contrasting with the current market price of $448.28, leading to the conclusion that Tesla stock is substantially overvalued.
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