This analysis examines Bitcoin's potential long-term bearish trend, drawing parallels between past market cycles to determine a target price and failure point. Bitcoin bear markets tend to begin in Q4 of post-halving years. The analysis suggests the market top could be in October, estimating a 60-70% likelihood. It highlights a bearish divergence on the weekly RSI. A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently near 55569, would indicate an over 80% chance of a bear market. Considering past market behavior, the target is set based on the worst cycle drawdown, considering the current RSI, the failure point is set at 94000. Based on the long term vision an initial retracement is expected, the analysis is set until October of 2026.