The analysis identifies Bitcoin's 50-week moving average as a resistance level, highlighting two potential scenarios: a bearish breakdown to $75,000 by Q1 2026, or a bounce leading to a $145,000 target by the end of Q1 2026. The analyst notes that in the past, a monthly chart bearish MACD cross has marked the start of a bear market, and every time Bitcoin has closed below the 50-week moving average a bear market followed.However, the analyst argues that ETFs may be impacting the market, changing historical patterns. The market action and outcome will depend on whether Bitcoin’s price action breaks from this $94,000 level.