The analysis focuses on Bitcoin's potential shift to a bearish market, citing concerns over breakdown validation. Identifies 103000 as a critical level, noting triple top rejection from a trendline since 2017. A weekly candle close below 103000 near the 50-week SMA, signals the potential start of a validated bear market. Momentum indicators on the two-week chart further support a downside break, highlighting a momentum triangle pattern traced back to 2023, which will break downwards if the price breaks below 103000. The main data point is to see if Bitcoin continues the downward trend to October 2026, this also supports the 4 year cycle, thus a weekly and two weekly close below 103000 level would mark the macro top validation. The analyst is currently using the presently available data, rather than using speculation.